After a Morgan Stanley report hinting at an iPhone 16 supercycle and better iPhone sales for the next couple of years, Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has a different view of how many iPhone 16 units Apple might actually be preparing.
Taking into consideration the earning calls from TSMC and Largan, two key Apple suppliers, it seems iPhone 16 orders haven’t increased, as TSMC doesn’t see growth in manufacturing, and Largan says orders for high-end models are similar to last year’s.
In a blog post, Kuo writes that “some suppliers have seen an increase in iPhone 16 orders for 2H24, but from the EMS/assembly perspective, the iPhone 16 orders for 2H24 have not seen much change (about 87 million units), still slightly lower than the 2H23 iPhone 15 orders (about 91 million units).”
The analyst cites “specific reasons within individual industries or components” for a possible increase in iPhone 16 orders for certain suppliers. That said, it doesn’t mean Morgan Stanley isn’t right about a possible supercycle from 2024 to 2026. However, Apple manufacturers aren’t expecting to produce more iPhones (or iPhone components) than they are already producing.
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According to Ming-Chi Kuo, “The launch of Apple Intelligence is generally considered to be the reason for the increase in iPhone 16 orders. However, Apple Intelligence will only be available in Beta for US users in 2H24, and Apple Intelligence Siri only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic.”
In addition, users must need their first experience with Apple Intelligence to understand if these features will be enough to make them upgrade or if they will focus on better cameras or longer battery life instead.
Below, you can learn more about this upcoming release.
